April '25 Deep Dive - North Bay | Ascend Real Estate

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Median sale prices throughout the North Bay have remained fairly strong, with little deviation from their long-term averages.
Inventory has fallen by a considerable margin, as the number of homes remains stagnant and the number of new listings drops.
Despite the drop in inventory, homes are sitting on the market for longer, with homes in Solano and Sonoma counties sitting on the market for roughly 15% longer than they did last year.

Median sale prices remain strong in the North Bay

Despite some uncertainty at the start of 2025, the North Bay market has been holding steady overall. Median sale prices have remained relatively flat this year, which is encouraging for sellers. In March, Sonoma and Solano counties saw little change in prices, while Marin experienced a 9.32% year-over-year drop and Napa posted a 10.40% increase. Looking ahead, limited inventory could push prices up across the region in the coming months.

Inventory looks like it will continue to be an issue

Typically, inventory builds during the first quarter of the year, as fewer buyers are actively searching for homes—making March a month when listings usually increase. However, this March saw a surprising 14.28% drop in inventory compared to the previous month. On top of that, new listings were down 20.78% year-over-year. If this trend continues, the limited supply could spark more bidding wars and drive up median sale prices.

Despite falling inventories, homes aren’t selling any faster

If you were to hear that inventories are falling, while demand remains steady, you might assume that homes are selling faster. However, this isn’t the case in the North Bay. Despite lower inventory levels and fewer new listings, we saw the median home in Sonoma and Solano counties spend roughly 15% more time on the market than this time last year, and the median listing in Marin County spend the exact same amount of time on the market. However, in Napa County, homes are moving around 14% faster than they were around this time last year!

Sellers in Sonoma Marin, and Solano Counties gain bargaining power, while buyers retain the bargaining power in Napa County

Historically, California’s real estate market averages about three months of inventory at any given time. When supply falls below that threshold, the market favors sellers; when it rises above, it shifts in favor of buyers. With inventory tightening across much of the North Bay, sellers are beginning to regain some of the leverage they had previously lost. Currently, Sonoma County has about 2.6 months of supply, Marin 2.1 months, and Solano 2.3 months—indicating a seller’s market—while Napa County remains a buyers’ market with approximately 5.6 months of inventory.

Bottom Line

Median sale prices have remained steady through early 2025, offering encouraging signs for sellers despite initial uncertainty. March brought an unexpected drop in inventory and fewer new listings, which may lead to increased competition and rising prices in the coming months. Interestingly, homes aren’t selling any faster—most counties saw homes spend more time on the market, with Napa being the exception. With supply dipping below the three-month mark in Sonoma, Marin, and Solano counties, sellers are gaining leverage again, while Napa continues to favor buyers due to higher inventory levels.