April '25 Deep Dive - San Francisco

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Single-family homes continue to hold their value, while condo values continue to trend downward over time.
Single-family homes are selling for the highest percentage of their original price that we’ve seen since the Fed started hiking interest rates.
Inventory continues to be a huge issue for the San Francisco area, as both single-family home and condo inventories downtrend over time.

The disconnect between condos and single-family homes

Over the past four years, single-family homes in San Francisco have held their value relatively well, with the median sale price rising by 6.63%. In contrast, the condo market has seen a notable decline, with median prices dropping 12.52% during the same period. This trend clearly shows that buyers are showing a stronger preference for standalone homes over shared buildings.

Single-family homes are selling for the highest percentage of their original price that we’ve seen in years!

As you'd expect in a competitive market like San Francisco, high-demand properties—like detached single-family homes—are commanding premium prices, and buyers are stepping up. Currently, the average home is selling for 114.7% of its original asking price, a level we haven’t seen since June 2022, just before the market began cooling as the Fed raised interest rates. Combine that with ongoing inventory challenges, and we could be looking at the ingredients for a red-hot market this year.

Inventory remains one of the largest issues in the San Francisco residential real estate market

San Francisco’s inventory shortage is nothing new—we’ve been seeing a steady decline for quite some time. Last month, sold listings once again outpaced new listings, further reducing available inventory. This ongoing issue is closely tied to housing affordability, which has been a major concern for years. Many homeowners with low locked-in interest rates are hesitant to sell, as moving would likely mean taking on a higher-rate mortgage and significantly increasing their housing costs.

Sellers dominate the single-family home market, while buyers have leverage in the condo market

To gauge whether a market favors buyers or sellers, we look at the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI). A balanced market typically has around three months of supply, which has been the historical average for California. Currently, San Francisco’s single-family home market sits at just 1.5 months of inventory, indicating strong seller advantage. Meanwhile, the condo market has 3.7 months of supply, suggesting more favorable conditions for buyers and potential opportunities for those eyeing a condo.

Bottom Line

The market continues to show a clear split between single-family homes and condos. Over the past four years, single-family homes have appreciated by 6.63%, while condo prices have fallen by 12.52%, highlighting buyers’ preference for standalone properties. Homes are now selling for an average of 114.7% of their original list price—an indicator of strong demand and tight supply. With just 1.5 months of inventory, single-family homes remain firmly in seller territory, while the condo market, with 3.7 months of supply, offers more leverage and potential deals for buyers.