June '25 Deep Dive - Silicon Valley

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Silicon Valley seems to have broken its growth streak that we’ve seen for nearly two years.
Inventories continue to build, as they reach new two-year highs.
Although inventories are building, single-family homes are not staying on the market for very long.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

The growth streak has officially been broken

After nearly two years of steady appreciation, Silicon Valley’s single-family home market has shown signs of cooling. In May, median sale prices slipped year-over-year in Santa Cruz County (-1.65%) and more sharply in San Mateo County (-10.46%). The exception? Santa Clara County, which continued to climb with a 3.99% increase in median prices compared to last year.

The condo market, however, is experiencing more pronounced corrections. Median condo prices dropped 14.88% in San Mateo County, 3.19% in Santa Clara County, and 9.71% in Santa Cruz County, all on a year-over-year basis. While not unexpected, these shifts mark a new chapter for Silicon Valley’s housing market.

Inventory buildup shows no sign of stopping

Active listings surged across the board in May, with both single-family and condo markets reaching two-year highs for inventory levels. Single-family home listings rose 21.65% year-over-year, while condo listings jumped 34.80%.

While we saw a modest uptick in new listings, the real story is in the number of sales. Condo sales dropped 22.82%, and single-family home sales declined 13.01% compared to last year. Some of this slowdown could be linked to broader market uncertainty and economic events earlier in the spring, but regardless, buyers now have more options — and time — to make strategic decisions.

A huge opportunity in the condo market

Condo buyers in Silicon Valley have rarely had this much leverage. Days on market for condos have skyrocketed: up 46.15% in Santa Clara County, 111.11% in Santa Cruz County, and 146.15% in San Mateo County year-over-year.

With more listings sitting unsold and motivated sellers likely in the mix, savvy buyers could uncover real value in the condo market this summer — especially those ready to move decisively.

Silicon Valley is slowly becoming a buyers’ market

The Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric is a reliable way to gauge market balance. California’s long-term average sits around 3 months, with anything above that signaling a buyers’ market and anything below favoring sellers.

In May, all three counties' condo markets were firmly in buyers’ market territory:

San Mateo County: 4.0 months
Santa Clara County: 3.3 months
Santa Cruz County: 5.8 months

For single-family homes, the picture is more mixed. Santa Cruz County tipped into buyers’ market territory with 4.3 months of supply, while San Mateo County (2.0 months) and Santa Clara County (1.7 months) remained sellers’ markets — though trending closer to neutral.

Bottom Line:

Silicon Valley's red-hot streak may be cooling, but that doesn’t mean the market is falling apart — it’s recalibrating. While sellers are adjusting expectations, buyers now have more breathing room, particularly in the condo space. Increased inventory, longer days on market, and price adjustments are creating openings not seen in years. Whether you're upgrading, investing, or buying your first home, this could be the moment to take a closer look.