May '25 Deep Dive - East Bay | Ascend Real Estate

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

In the month of April, we saw considerable year-over-year declines in median sale prices throughout the East Bay.

Both single-family home and condo inventory have skyrocketed on a year-over-year basis by roughly 43%.

Listings are sitting on the market for a few days longer than they were around this time last year.

The median sale price of a condo in Contra Costa County decreased by 12%!

In April, we continued to see price adjustments across the East Bay, with the most significant drop coming from condos in Contra Costa County. That said, most other segments experienced more modest shifts. Condos in Alameda County saw a 3.04% year-over-year dip in median sale price, while single-family homes declined by 3.21% in Alameda County and 4.31% in Contra Costa County.

Inventories are at the highest level we’ve seen in the past two years

April brought a surge of new listings without a matching pace of sales, especially in the single-family home market. New listings were up 7.47% year-over-year, while sales dropped 12.21%, pushing active inventory 43.69% higher than this time last year. Condos followed a similar pattern—despite fewer new listings compared to last April, an even sharper decline in sales has driven condo inventory up by 42.78% year-over-year. After months of steady buildup, today’s buyers are seeing far more options than they had just a year ago.

Despite high inventory levels, homes are still moving quickly!

Hearing that inventories are rising and prices are dropping might lead you to think homes are lingering on the market for months. While it’s true listings are staying a bit longer, the average single-family home in the East Bay is still selling fast—typically within 13 days. Condos naturally take a little more time to move, but they’re still selling briskly, with the average condo spending just 19 days on the market in Alameda County and 26 days in Contra Costa County.

The East Bay single-family home market remains a seller’s market - for now

To gauge whether the market favors buyers or sellers, we rely on the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. In California, around three months of supply typically signals a balanced market. When MSI dips below three months, it’s a seller’s market; when it rises above, it shifts to a buyer’s market. With inventories rising in the East Bay and demand staying steady, the MSI has been climbing. Normally, supply grows into the summer, and with single-family homes currently at 2.2 months in Alameda and 2.5 months in Contra Costa, these markets are edging closer to flipping into buyer’s territory. Meanwhile, condos already lean heavily in favor of buyers, with 4.7 months of supply in Alameda and 3.9 in Contra Costa—making now an ideal time for East Bay condo buyers to strike.

Bottom Line

In April, the East Bay housing market saw notable shifts, highlighted by a sharp 12% drop in median condo prices in Contra Costa County, while other segments experienced more modest declines. Inventory levels surged to their highest in two years, with new single-family home listings up 7.47% year-over-year but sales down 12.21%, pushing active inventory nearly 44% higher than last year. Despite rising inventories and price adjustments, homes continue to sell quickly—single-family homes average just 13 days on the market, and condos move within 19 to 26 days depending on the county. While single-family markets in Alameda and Contra Costa remain sellers’ markets with around 2.2 to 2.5 months of supply, they are approaching a potential shift toward buyers as supply builds. Meanwhile, the condo market strongly favors buyers, with 3.9 to 4.7 months of inventory, making it a prime time for East Bay condo buyers to act.