East Bay October '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Median home prices are slightly below peak levels across the East Bay. We expected price contraction after peaking in the second quarter, which is the seasonal norm. Prices will likely decline for the rest of the year.
Total inventory rose 6.0% month over month, as new listings rose due to lower rates and more sellers coming back to the market. However, we expect inventory to decline and the overall market to slow in the fourth quarter.
Months of Supply Inventory still indicates a sellers’ market in the East Bay for single-family homes, but for condos, MSI implies the market now favors buyers.

Median home prices rose month over month in the East Bay

In the East Bay, home prices haven’t been largely affected by rising mortgage rates after the initial period of price correction from May 2022 to January 2023. Low, but growing, inventory and high demand have more than offset the downward price pressure from higher mortgage rates. Year to date, in September, the median single-family home and condo prices rose across the East Bay. For single-family homes, prices rose 8% in both Alameda and Contra Costa, and for condos, prices were up 11% in Alameda and 15% in Contra Costa. Year over year, however, prices are down slightly. Prices typically peak in the summer months, so we don’t expect new all-time highs for the rest of this year. However, we do expect some minor price contraction in the fourth quarter.

High mortgage rates soften both supply and demand, but home buyers and sellers seemed to tolerate rates near 6% much more than around 7%. Now that rates are declining, sales could get a little boost, but the housing market typically slows in the fourth quarter of any year.

New listings rose in September, causing inventory to increase

The 2024 housing market has looked progressively healthier with each passing month. We’re far enough into the year to know that inventory levels are about as good as we could’ve hoped, although single-family home inventory is still lower than we would like. In 2023, single-family home and condo inventory followed fairly typical seasonal trends, but at significantly depressed levels. Low inventory and fewer new listings slowed the market considerably last year. Even though sales volume this year was similar to last, far more new listings have come to the market, which has allowed inventory to grow. Condo inventory even reached a four-year high in September. For single-family homes, inventory is up 24% year over year.

Typically, inventory begins to increase in January or February, peaking in July or August before declining once again from the summer months to the winter. It’s looking like 2024 inventory, sales, and new listings will resemble historically seasonal patterns, and at more normal levels than last year. However, inventory still increased in September, which is atypical. Falling mortgage rates have brought buyers and sellers back to the market during the time of year the market tends to slow significantly.

Months of Supply Inventory in September 2024 indicated a sellers’ market for single-family homes and a buyers’ market for condos

Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The East Bay market tends to favor sellers, especially for single-family homes, which is reflected in its low MSI. MSI has trended higher in 2024, causing condos to move from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market. Although single-family home MSI has moved higher, it’s still low, indicating a sellers’ market.

The Bottom Line

The 2024 housing market is correcting, with home prices peaking in June and following a typical seasonal cycle. Sales remain low despite improved affordability due to declining mortgage rates, and inventory has reached its highest level since 2020. High mortgage rates have reduced both supply and demand, but limited inventory supports prices. The market is still a seller's market for single-family homes, while condos favor buyers. Looking ahead to 2025, declining rates and high inventory could fuel a stronger spring market. If you’d like to discuss listing your home in the Spring or getting pre-approved, we’re here to help.