March '25 Market Deep Dive

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:
Inventory continues to be a huge problem throughout San Francisco, with continued year-over-year declines.
Median sale prices continue to gyrate around the 2-year average, as supply and demand move roughly in-line with each other.
Single-family homes continue to be a hot commodity, while condos continue to sit on the market.

Inventory continues to dwindle away in San Francisco

San Francisco's housing market is showing a concerning trend not seen in many other Bay Area submarkets: inventory is shrinking. While other areas see a resurgence in listings, SF sellers are holding onto their properties. As a result, active single-family home listings are down 15.87% year-over-year, and condo listings have dropped 7.70%.

Single-family homes fetch the highest percentage of original price we’ve seen in nearly two years

With limited supply, single-family homes are selling well above asking, creating challenges for first-time buyers. In February, they averaged 113.3% of the listing price—the highest since May 2022. However, condos are selling at or below asking, bucking this trend.

Supply and demand are remaining fairly balanced, for now

San Francisco's supply and demand have remained balanced recently, but inventory won’t grow meaningfully unless new listings consistently outpace sales over time.

Sellers control the single-family home market, while buyers control the condo market

Market conditions are measured by Months of Supply Inventory (MSI). California historically averages three months of MSI, indicating a balanced market. Below three months favors sellers, while above three months favors buyers.

San Francisco's market is divided—sellers dominate the single-family home market (1.2 MSI), while buyers have more leverage in the condo market (3.4 MSI).

Bottom Line

San Francisco's housing market is tightening as inventory shrinks—single-family home listings are down 15.87% year over year, while condo listings have dropped 7.70%. With limited supply, single-family homes are selling at an average of 113.3% of the listing price, the highest since May 2022, while condos remain at or below asking. Supply and demand are currently balanced, but inventory won’t grow unless new listings consistently outpace sales. Sellers hold the advantage in the single-family home market (1.2 MSI), while buyers have more leverage in the condo market (3.4 MSI).