North Bay October '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

The median single-family home prices are still near their record highs with the exception of Marin, which peaked at over $2.2 million in 2022. We expect prices to contract in Q4, but we may see a little price bump in October due to higher-than-usual demand.
Total inventory fell 15.3% month over month, as homes coming under contract spiked, up 17.2% in September. We expect inventory to decline and the overall market to slow in the fourth quarter.
Months of Supply Inventory fell across the North Bay in September, implying a shift that favors sellers. MSI indicated a sellers’ market in Marin and Solano, balanced market in Sonoma, and a buyers’ market in Napa.

The median single-family home in Napa reached an all-time high

In the North Bay, single-family home prices are near record highs across most of the North Bay with the exception of Marin. Persistently low inventory relative to the high demand in the area has more than offset the downward price pressure from higher mortgage rates. Prices in the North Bay generally haven’t experienced larger drops due to higher mortgage rates. Year to date, in September, the median single-family home price rose across the North Bay with the exception of Napa. Year over year, prices increased most significantly for single-family homes in Marin, up 6%. Prices typically peak in the summer months, so we don’t expect new all-time highs for the rest of this year. However, we do expect some minor price contraction in the fourth quarter.

High mortgage rates soften both supply and demand, but home buyers and sellers seemed to tolerate rates near 6% much more than around 7%. Now that rates are declining, sales could get a little boost, but the housing market typically slows in the fourth quarter of any year.

Inventory, sales, and new listings fell month over month

The 2024 housing market has looked progressively healthier with each passing month. We’re far enough into the year to know that inventory levels are about as good as we could’ve hoped. In 2023, single-family home inventory followed fairly typical seasonal trends, but at significantly depressed levels. Low inventory and fewer new listings slowed the market considerably last year. Even though sales volume this year was similar to last, far more new listings have come to the market, which has allowed inventory to grow. Typically, inventory begins to increase in January or February, peaking in July or August before declining once again from the summer months to the winter. It’s looking like 2024 inventory, sales, and new listings will resemble historically seasonal patterns, and at more normal levels.

In September 2024, the number of homes for sale was 8% lower than last year, which was directly caused by the number of homes coming under contract in September, up 17% month over month and 48% year over year. The North Bay housing market is notably responsive to mortgage rates, and as rates fell in September, buyers rushed to the market.

Months of Supply Inventory in September 2024 indicates a sellers’ market in Marin and Solano, a balanced market in Sonoma, and a buyers’ market in Napa

Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). MSI in the North Bay market has trended higher throughout most of 2024. However, in September, MSI fell across markets, implying the market shifted more favorably toward sellers. Currently, single-family home MSI indicates a sellers’ market in Marin and Solano, a balanced market in Sonoma, and a buyers’ market in Napa.

The Bottom Line

The 2024 housing market is correcting, with home prices peaking in June and following a typical seasonal cycle. Sales remain low despite improved affordability due to declining mortgage rates, and inventory has reached its highest level since 2020. High mortgage rates have reduced both supply and demand, but limited inventory supports prices. The market is still a seller's market for single-family homes, while condos favor buyers. Looking ahead to 2025, declining rates and high inventory could fuel a stronger spring market. If you’d like to discuss listing your home in the Spring or getting pre-approved, we’re here to help.