May '25 Deep Dive - North Bay | Ascend Real Estate

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Median sale prices have remained roughly flat on a year-over-year basis in the North Bay in the month of April.
Inventory levels continue to drop, as considerably fewer listings hit the market, when compared to both the prior month and the prior year.
Listings in the North Bay are spending slightly more time on the market when compared to last year.

Despite fewer listings hitting the market, median sales prices remain roughly flat

As of now, median sale prices across the North Bay remain relatively steady, with modest year-over-year gains for single-family homes in Sonoma and Marin Counties—up 0.59% and 2.93%, respectively—while Solano and Napa Counties saw slight declines of 0.41% and 0.52%. As we navigate an unpredictable economic landscape, it's more important than ever to watch how pricing trends evolve alongside inventory levels in the coming months.

Inventory levels remain lower than they were last year

Over the past month, new listings have been few and far between, leading to a notable drop in overall inventory. In April, active listings declined by 16.61% year-over-year and 15.87% month-over-month—a striking shift largely driven by nearly 30% fewer new listings compared to the same time last year. Meanwhile, the number of sold homes held steady with only a slight 1.41% decrease. To restore momentum in inventory growth, a significant uptick in new listings will be essential moving forward.

The median listing is spending slightly more time on the market than it did last year

When you hear that fewer listings are coming to market and overall inventory is down—while demand holds steady—it’s easy to assume homes are flying off the shelves. But in the North Bay this April, that wasn’t quite the case. On average, homes actually spent a few more days on the market compared to the same time last year. That said, if inventory remains this tight, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a quicker pace of sales in the months ahead.

Napa remains a buyer's market, whereas Marin, Solano, and Sonoma Counties favor the seller

California’s real estate market typically hovers around three months of inventory, the threshold that separates a seller’s market from a buyer’s market—anything below that favors sellers, while anything above leans toward buyers. In April, we saw some notable shifts: Napa reached 6.2 months of supply, firmly in buyer’s market territory, while Marin and Solano Counties had just 2.6 and 2.2 months, respectively—solidly favoring sellers. Sonoma County, despite some recent fluctuations, is currently sitting at a balanced 3.1 months of supply.

Bottom Line

Despite fewer new listings hitting the market, median sale prices across the North Bay have stayed relatively flat, with small gains in Sonoma and Marin and slight dips in Solano and Napa. Inventory levels remain well below last year’s, driven by nearly 30% fewer new listings in April, even as the number of homes sold held steady. Interestingly, homes are spending a bit more time on the market than they did last year—though that could shift quickly if inventory remains tight. In terms of market balance, Napa continues to favor buyers with over six months of supply, while Marin, Solano, and Sonoma all lean toward sellers or remain relatively balanced.