January 2025 Market Deep Dive - East Bay
Ascend RE January 24, 2025
Ascend RE January 24, 2025
The Local Lowdown
Median home prices rose in 2024, following historical seasonal trends. Single-family home prices in Contra Costa and condos in Alameda experienced the largest gains.
Total inventory decreased 32.5% month over month, as new listings fell more than sales. We expect inventory to continue to decline in January and the overall market to slow due to lack of supply.
Months of Supply Inventory plummeted in Q4 2024 due to the lack of inventory. Currently, MSI indicates a strong sellers’ market for single-family homes and condos.
The median single-family home prices are up year over year
East Bay home prices remained resilient despite rising mortgage rates, with initial corrections from May 2022 to January 2023 offset by low but growing inventory and strong demand. Year over year, single-family home prices stayed flat in Alameda and rose 9% in Contra Costa, while condo prices increased 12% in Alameda and 8% in Contra Costa. Prices typically peak in summer and contract slightly after, with a minor decline expected in January before rebounding in spring. While mortgage rates near 6% were more tolerable, the recent rise closer to 7% is expected to slow sales further.
Inventory, new listings, and sales fell in December
The 2024 housing market showed steady improvement until Q4 when East Bay inventory dropped to near-record lows. While 2023 followed typical seasonal trends, inventory remained low, slowing the market. In 2024, increased new listings helped inventory grow, with condo inventory reaching a four-year high in September before declining. Single-family home inventory rose year over year but fell month over month due to a sharper drop in new listings than sales. Inventory is expected to follow historical seasonal patterns in 2024, reaching more typical levels than last year.
Months of Supply Inventory in December 2024 indicated a sellers’ market
Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) measures how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace, with three months considered a balanced market in California. A lower MSI favors sellers, while a higher MSI favors buyers. The East Bay typically leans toward a sellers’ market, especially for single-family homes. In Q4, MSI dropped across the region, reinforcing seller advantage.
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