June '25 Deep Dive - East Bay | Ascend Real Estate

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Median sale prices in the East Bay remain shockingly resilient, barely moving on a year-over-year basis.
With considerably more inventory on the market than this time last year, inventories have exploded in the East Bay.
Although Inventories are up, listings are still being bought up at break-neck speeds.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

The East Bay has retained its tremendous resilience

Among all Bay Area submarkets, the East Bay continues to stand out for its steady hand. Over the past two years, single-family home prices in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties have remained remarkably stable, showing far less volatility than other regions. That trend extended into May: median single-family home prices dipped a negligible 0.01% in Contra Costa County and 1.46% in Alameda County year-over-year.

However, the condo market tells a different story. Alameda County condos saw a significant 16.43% decline in median prices, while Contra Costa County condos dropped just 0.71% compared to this time last year.

Inventory levels continue to surge upward throughout the East Bay

While prices have remained steady, rising inventory is beginning to shift the balance. In May, the East Bay hit a new two-year high for single-family home inventory, with active listings up 31.42% year-over-year. Condo inventory also increased 22.80%, despite pulling back slightly from last month’s peak.

What’s driving this inventory build-up isn’t necessarily a flood of new listings — it’s slower sales. Compared to May 2023, 15.57% fewer single-family homes and 25.09% fewer condos were sold, signaling a more cautious and selective buyer pool.

Listings are spending comparatively more time on the market

Homes are taking a bit longer to sell, but make no mistake — they’re still moving quickly. For example, the average single-family home in Contra Costa County is spending 40% more time on the market than last year, yet it’s still selling in just 14 days. That’s a clear indicator that buyer demand remains strong, even if shoppers are being more deliberate.

The single-family market is dominated by sellers, while the condo market is controlled by buyers

The Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) continues to paint a split picture. In Alameda County, the MSI for single-family homes sits at 2.3 months, and 2.8 months in Contra Costa County — both firmly in sellers’ market territory.

In contrast, the condo market is tipping in favor of buyers. MSI rose to 4.8 months in Alameda County and 3.9 months in Contra Costa County, giving condo buyers more room to negotiate and more inventory to choose from.

Bottom Line:

The East Bay remains one of the most resilient markets in the Bay Area — especially for single-family homes. While pricing has stayed steady, rising inventory and slower sales are creating more breathing room for buyers, particularly in the condo segment. Sellers still have the upper hand in the single-family market, but buyers have increasing leverage — and more choices — than we’ve seen in recent years. If you’re planning your next move, strategy and timing will be key.