Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

Bay Area May Market Update

Manuel Solis May 17, 2021

Real Estate

Bay Area May Market Update

Welcome to our May newsletter, where we dive into national and local residential real estate trends. This month, we examine how the housing undersupply is increasing home prices and paving the way toward a more balanced market. We also discuss the sharp decrease in mortgage rates and the state of employment, which is historically one of the leading indicators of home valuations.

Currently, the housing supply is so low that demand far outpaces the number of homes on the market. Freddie Mac estimates that the United States is about 4 million homes short of meeting buyer demand. The housing shortage compounds when potential home sellers decide to stay out of the market because they feel they won’t be able to find a home to buy after they sell. Home builders, who have been slow to ramp up production after the 2008 crash, are drastically increasing new construction because they want to capitalize on the sustained demand for housing.

We expect relative housing demand to remain high over the next 12 months at the very least. New homes take time to build and will not come to market at the rate necessary to balance it. In March 2021, U.S. home builders started constructing homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.74 million, up 37% compared to March 2020. New construction will eventually alleviate some of the shortage, but housing will remain undersupplied for months, if not years, to come. 

As we navigate this period of high buyer demand and low supply, we remain committed to providing you with the most current market information so you feel supported and informed in your buying and selling decisions. 

In this month’s newsletter, we cover the following:

  • Key Topics and Trends in May: Low home supply will continue for the foreseeable future, increasing bidding wars and driving up prices. The average U.S. mortgage rate decreased 23 basis points in two weeks.
  • May Housing Market Updates for the Greater Bay Area: Single-family homes are massively undersupplied relative to demand, causing prices to appreciate further. Condo prices remain stable.

Key Topics and Trends in May

Last year, many individuals and families experienced feast or famine. Those lucky enough to stay financially unaffected by the pandemic were likely saving or investing more than expected, accruing more and more capital. At the same time, interest rates plummeted to hyperlow levels as millennials, the largest living adult generation, grew to prime homeownership age. With these factors combined, we saw the demand for homes skyrocket in 2020. The near-universal ability to work remotely changed motivations for moving. Relocating for a job or to be closer to the office was no longer necessary. However, due to the unique requirements of working from home, people began wanting more space. As a result, single-family home demand rose steeply, while condo demand lagged. As sellers listed condos, they bought single-family homes, driving single-family home inventory down. As the supply of homes declined, fewer new listings came to market—in part, because of the difficulty of finding a new home after selling.

One reason for the housing shortage has been the understandable hesitancy of builders to construct new properties since the 2006–2008 housing crash; however, this lack of new construction means that there aren’t enough homes on the market to meet the unexpectedly high demand. Over the last six months, new construction has ramped up considerably to an annualized 1.74 million new homes. The largest gains in new-home construction occurred in the Midwest, where housing starts more than doubled on a monthly basis. The Northeast and the South also saw faster rates of new-home construction, while home-building activity slowed in the West. Additionally, established metro areas lack land upon which to build, so adding meaningfully to supply through new construction can be challenging or fully unattainable.  

As you can see from the chart below, new construction is now in the pre-housing bubble levels as home builders react to the surge in home prices and demand.

Mortgage rates rose significantly, slightly over 50 basis points, from January 2021 to mid-April 2021, but dropped sharply back below 3% in the second half of April. Although interest rates are still expected to rise to 3.7% over the course of the year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the mortgage rate drop shows the non-linear path that rates will likely take. Because the mortgage rate affects affordability, the current low rate will only increase demand in the short term.

High unemployment is one of the strongest predictors of falling home prices over a two-year period. The chart below illustrates the employment cost of a recession. Total employment tends to grow at a fairly consistent rate during economic expansions. The green line illustrates the expected level of employment had the pandemic never happened. As that green line shows, we are nearly 11 million jobs below where employment was expected to be after the first quarter of 2021. Twice as many workers are currently unemployed than in February 2020. The initial pain of unemployment has been dampened by government relief. Mortgages in forbearance and foreclosures are low, as are delinquencies in credit card debt. However, we will continue to monitor unemployment in order to gauge future market conditions. 

Although we don’t expect the same level of buying in 2021 that we saw in 2020, the environment is right for demand to outpace supply in 2021. In the short term, we may even see a demand spike as potential buyers try to purchase before rates rise higher. As a result, we anticipate a competitive landscape for buyers over the course of this year. 

While the market remains competitive for buyers, conditions are making it an exceptional time for homeowners to sell. Low inventory means multiple offers and fewer concessions. Because sellers are often selling one home and buying another, it is essential that sellers work with the right agent to ensure the transition goes smoothly.

May Housing Market Updates
for the Greater Bay Area

During March 2021 in the Greater Bay Area, the median single-family home price rose to another all-time high. Year-over-year, Greater Bay Area prices increased considerably, up 21%.

Prices in every region and county were up in March. The North Bay, East Bay, and Silicon Valley reached all-time highs in March. San Francisco is still slightly off peak prices for single-family homes. The sustained price appreciation emphasizes the demand in the area.

As you can see in the graphs below, median condo prices were mixed across regions and counties. North Bay condo prices declined month-over-month, while the rest of the Bay regions rose slightly.

Single-family home inventory began to climb over the last two months in anticipation of the spring season, when more sellers typically come to market. In 2020, fewer people wanted to leave the Bay Area and more people wanted to move there, which drove inventory down to record low levels. New listings, therefore, improve the current market conditions. Since the start of 2021, more homes than usual have come to market, causing inventory to rise. However, inventory is still low, especially in relation to demand, and the sustained low inventory will likely cause prices to appreciate throughout 2021.

Both single-family homes and condos are selling quickly. As we will see, the pace of sales has contributed to the low Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) over the past several months.

We can use MSI as a metric to judge whether the market favors buyers or sellers. The average MSI is three months in California (far lower than the national average of six months), which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three means that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (that is, it is a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI means there are more sellers than buyers (that is, it is a buyers’ market). In March 2021, the MSI fell below two months of supply for single-family homes, indicating that the market strongly favors sellers.

In summary, the high demand and low supply present in the Greater Bay Area have driven home price appreciation. Inventory will likely remain low this year with fewer sellers coming to market, potentially lifting prices higher. Overall, the housing market has shown its resilience through the pandemic and remains one of the most valuable asset classes. The data show that housing has remained consistently strong throughout this period. 

We anticipate new listings to accelerate into the summer months. The current market conditions could withstand a high number of new listings coming to market, and more sellers could enter the market to capitalize on the high buyer demand. As we enter the spring season, we expect the high demand to continue, and new houses on the market to be sold quickly.

As always, we remain committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we’ve shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home or condo.


Recent Blog Posts

Browse our blog posts to be in the know.

2024 Bay Area Holiday Schedule

Top Grocery Stores & Markets Near San Francisco

Your Guide to Fresh Finds and Specialty Foods in the Bay Area

North Bay October '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula October '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay October '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco October '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Shaping the Future

A Creative Guide to the Top Schools Near San Francisco

14 Terrifying Bay Area Haunted Houses For The Bravest Among Us

From Ramen to Rice Paper

Discover the Best Asian Markets Near San Francisco

A Guide to the Best Mexican Eats

Top Taquerias Near San Francisco

San Francisco September '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay September '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula September '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay September '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Explore the Bay Area's Natural Beauty

Best Hiking Trails Near San Francisco

A Tail-Wagging Adventure

Top Dog Parks Near San Francisco

A Food Lover's Paradise

Top 10 Must-Try Restaurants Near San Francisco

Los Angeles August '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco August '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay August '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula August '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay August '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay July '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco July '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula July '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay July '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles July '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles June '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco June '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay June '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula June '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay June '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco May '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles May '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay May '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula May '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay May '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Upholding Equality: The Significance of the Fair Housing Act

Bay Area: Spring and Summer Gardening Guide

North Bay April '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula April '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay April '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles April '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco April '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula March '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay March '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco March '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles March '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay March '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Spring 2024 Farmer's Market Schedule

San Francisco February '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles February '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay February '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula February '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay February '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco January '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles January '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay January '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay Peninsula January '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay January '24 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco December '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay December '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay December '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Silicon Valley December '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles December '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

2023 HOLIDAY COOKIE DECORATING SOCIAL

South Bay / Silicon Valley November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Analysis: Homes Near Trader Joe’s Have Higher Values

North Bay October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Silicon Valley October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Live Work Play Here

For the month of June, we have supported LGBT Asylum Project, and are hosting this brunch in honor of all the great work this nonprofit does. Come join our teams for a… Read more

Hiring Licensed Real Estate Agents

Take your real estate career to the next level!

North Bay: January '23 Housing Update

What does 2023 have in store for the housing market?

San Francisco: January '23 Housing Update

What does 2023 have in store for the housing market?

San Francisco: March '23 Housing Update

Spring has sprung and the market is feeling a lot luckier!

East Bay: January '23 Housing Update

What does 2023 have in store for the housing market?

Move by HUD and FHA to provide greater homeownership opportunities

Have questions about the market? Our team is here to help and connect you to a lender.

Mortgage Rates Drop Prompts Buyer Demand

Mortgage Applications jump due to lowest rates since September

San Francisco Owners Required to Register Homes

March 1 Deadline for Rent Board Housing Inventory

Tenant Buyouts

What does it entail, and what does it mean for the residence owner going forward?  

Your Spring Guide to Bay Area Farmers’ Markets

Full Guide to 79 different farmers’ markets in San Francisco and beyond.

Los Angeles September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Peninsula September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

The 12 most delicious new restaurants in the Bay Area

Summer is here, and so are the boozy slushies, all-you-can-eat tacos and double cheeseburgers

East Bay August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Peninsula August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco July '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Let’s Talk

You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.