October Bay Area Market Update

Manuel Solis November 4, 2020

Real Estate

October Bay Area Market Update

Welcome to our October newsletter. This month, we discuss the state of the economy, COVID-19, and potential economic stimulus. We will also look at forecasts for the housing market now that we are entering autumn. Overall, the housing market has shown significant price growth over the second quarter, showcasing the strength and stability of residential real estate. Year-over-year sales have also increased considerably through the summer months. As we enter autumn, we believe the housing market is positioned for continued growth in both sales and price appreciation. As the market changes, we will continue to provide the most up-to-date housing information to support your buying and selling decisions.

In this month’s newsletter, we cover the following:

  • Key Topics and Trends in October: More than half of those jobs lost in March and April have now been recovered, but hiring has slowed, and some large companies are announcing layoffs. In California, COVID-19 cases have been declining since mid-August, although the decline over the last month has been less pronounced. Plans for additional economic stimulus for individuals and small businesses remain uncertain.
  • October Housing Market Updates: High buyer demand, coupled with low inventory, have caused home prices to climb higher.

Key Topics and Trends in October

The Labor Department reported that employers added 661,000 new jobs in September, which is fewer than half the jobs added in August and about a third of those added in July. This trend indicates a slowdown in hiring. If the hiring rate remains at current levels, it will take 16 months to recover the jobs lost in March and April; however, it will take even longer if the hiring rate continues to slow.

As of September 26, 12.5 million workers remained unemployed—an unemployment rate of 7.9%. More than 800,000 newly unemployed workers are filing initial unemployment claims each week, and 11.8 million are continuing to collect unemployment (see figure below).

Despite high rates of unemployment and an economic downturn, housing has held onto its value, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area. Pandemic-induced economic impacts disproportionately affect workers without college degrees—individuals who were likely not in the housing market in the first place. And, as the Bay Area employs a high number of skilled workers with college degrees, its unemployment rate is lower than other areas of the United States, and its housing market is holding strong. Now, more than ever, the more highly skilled and educated a person is, the more likely they will be able to afford a home.

As we enter autumn, we are uncertain whether or not federal stimulus aid for individuals and businesses affected by COVID will come before or after the election. The immediate risks to the housing market, however, are fairly low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) reports that, for the most part, homeowners were able to continue their mortgage payments; however, renters struggled to pay rent. This should come as no surprise; only 6% of homeowners reported collecting unemployment by the end of June, while the percentage of renters collecting unemployment was more than double that.

Despite our struggling economy, the housing market has maintained its value, and homeowners have navigated this uncertain time well.

October Housing Market Updates for the Greater Bay Area

Median prices for single-family homes had the largest year-over-year gain of 2020 and reached another all-time high.

We can look to Months of Supply Inventory (MSI)—the measure of how many months it would take for all current homes for sale on the market to sell at the current rate of sales—as a metric to judge whether the market favors buyers or sellers. The average MSI is three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three means that buyers are dominating the market and there are relatively few sellers (a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI means there are more sellers than buyers (a buyers’ market). The MSI for single-family homes is typically below three, and an MSI of 1.9 is low, firmly favoring sellers. The MSI for condos is generally more balanced, around three.

In summary, the single-family home market in particular is heavily undersupplied, a byproduct of the desirability of the Bay Area. Condo supply and demand was mixed across counties, but most saw median price gains. Overall, the housing market has shown its resilience through the pandemic and remains one of the safest asset classes. As we digest seemingly endless stories on negative economic data, we are pleased to report that home ownership has offered a sense of stability.

Moving forward, we anticipate new condo listings to slow. Home prices will likely remain stable. The fall/winter season tends to see a slowdown in activity, as well, although this year we may see a new trend.

As always, we remain committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we have shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home or condo.


Recent Blog Posts

Browse our blog posts to be in the know.

2023 HOLIDAY COOKIE DECORATING SOCIAL

South Bay / Silicon Valley November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco November '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

16 Terrifying Haunted Houses and Ghost Tours in the Bay Area

2023 Bay Area Holiday Schedule

Analysis: Homes Near Trader Joe’s Have Higher Values

North Bay October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Silicon Valley October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco October '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Live Work Play Here

For the month of June, we have supported LGBT Asylum Project, and are hosting this brunch in honor of all the great work this nonprofit does. Come join our teams for a… Read more

Hiring Licensed Real Estate Agents

Take your real estate career to the next level!

North Bay: January '23 Housing Update

What does 2023 have in store for the housing market?

San Francisco: January '23 Housing Update

What does 2023 have in store for the housing market?

San Francisco: March '23 Housing Update

Spring has sprung and the market is feeling a lot luckier!

East Bay: January '23 Housing Update

What does 2023 have in store for the housing market?

Move by HUD and FHA to provide greater homeownership opportunities

Have questions about the market? Our team is here to help and connect you to a lender.

Mortgage Rates Drop Prompts Buyer Demand

Mortgage Applications jump due to lowest rates since September

San Francisco Owners Required to Register Homes

March 1 Deadline for Rent Board Housing Inventory

Tenant Buyouts

What does it entail, and what does it mean for the residence owner going forward?  

Your Spring Guide to Bay Area Farmers’ Markets

Full Guide to 79 different farmers’ markets in San Francisco and beyond.

Los Angeles September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Peninsula September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco September '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

The 12 most delicious new restaurants in the Bay Area

Summer is here, and so are the boozy slushies, all-you-can-eat tacos and double cheeseburgers

East Bay August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Peninsula August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco August '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco July '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay July '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Peninsula July '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay July '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles July '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Peninsula June '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

San Francisco June '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles June '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay June '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay June '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Los Angeles May '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

North Bay May '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

South Bay / Peninsula May '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

East Bay May '23 Real Estate Update Ascend RE

Let’s Talk

You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.