North Bay Housing Market Update - January 2026
Ascend RE January 20, 2026
Ascend RE January 20, 2026
The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
Median sale prices were mixed across the North Bay in December, with Napa County single-family homes seeing 7.34% year-over-year growth while Sonoma and Solano Counties experienced slight declines.
Inventory levels have plummeted dramatically, with single-family home inventory down 38.85% and condo inventory down 27.99% on a year-over-year basis.
Despite the inventory crunch, listings are spending considerably more time on the market than they did last year, with single-family homes in Solano County sitting 42.86% longer.
A tale of two markets: Napa rebounds while others soften
December delivered mixed results across the North Bay single-family home market
Single-family homes
Napa County
Median sale price: $944,624
+7.34% year-over-year
Marin County
Median sale price: $1,512,500
+0.83% year-over-year
Sonoma County
Median sale price –1.18% year-over-year
Solano County
Median sale price –0.61% year-over-year
Condo market showed continued volatility
Marin County condos
–33.59% year-over-year
Sonoma County condos
+5.86% year-over-year
Napa County condos
+13.13% year-over-year
The great inventory disappearing act
December marked a sharp reversal after elevated North Bay inventory through much of 2025
Single-family homes
Inventory down 43.56% month-over-month
Inventory down 38.85% year-over-year
Just 1,407 homes currently on the market
Condos
Inventory down 36.83% month-over-month
Inventory down 27.99% year-over-year
Only 211 units available
Inventory decline is more severe than typical seasonal trends
Indicates pent-up buyer demand beginning to materialize
New listings
Single-family homes: –51.19% year-over-year
Condos: –54.93% year-over-year
Outlook
Ongoing supply constraints are likely to persist into the new year
Buyers are still taking their time despite dwindling options
Listings are taking longer to sell year-over-year, despite shrinking inventory
Single-family homes
Sonoma County
Average days on market: 61 days
+35.56% year-over-year
Solano County
Average days on market: 50 days
+42.86% year-over-year
Marin County
Days on market up just 2.04% year-over-year
Condo market shows mixed trends
Marin County condos
Days on market +46.34% year-over-year
Napa County condos
Days on market –22.06% year-over-year
Key takeaway
Sales pace varies by county even amid tightening supply
The holiday season brings a sharp shift toward seller's markets
Market conditions are measured using Months of Supply Inventory (MSI)
California’s historical average is ~3 months of MSI, indicating a balanced market
Below 3 months MSI = seller’s market
Above 3 months MSI = buyer’s market
December marked a strong shift toward seller’s market conditions
Single-family homes
Marin County
0.8 months of supply
–66.67% year-over-year
Sonoma County: 1.5 months of supply
Solano County: 1.8 months of supply
Napa County: 4.0 months of supply (down from buyer’s market conditions earlier in 2025)
Condo market
Sonoma County: 2.2 months of supply
Marin County: 2.0 months of supply
Solano County: 3.5 months of supply
Napa County: 3.7 months of supply
Takeaway
Inventory has tightened significantly across the North Bay
The new year may be an excellent time to list, as buyers compete for fewer available homes
Recent
Browse our blog posts to be in the know.
Provided Courtesy of Ascend Real Estate
Provided Courtesy of Ascend Real Estate
Provided courtesy of Ascend Real Estate
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