San Rafael Is in the Middle of Its Biggest Housing Boom in Decades

If you've noticed more cranes and "coming soon" apartment signs around San Rafael lately, you're not imagining it. The city is in the early stages of its most significant residential building wave in decades, and the numbers back that up.

The Pace of Approvals Has Exploded

Between 2018 and 2023, San Rafael approved an average of roughly 188 new housing units a year. Since 2024, that average has jumped to around 1,403 annually — more than sevenfold growth in just a couple of years.

The driver is California's Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process, which requires every city to plan for a set number of new units based on population and job growth. For 2023–2031, the Association of Bay Area Governments assigned San Rafael a target of 3,220 units, including 1,349 reserved for low- and very-low-income households — the teachers, nurses, and service workers who increasingly can't afford to live where they work. Cities that can't show they have the zoning capacity to hit these targets risk losing local land-use control and state funding, which helps explain the sudden urgency.

What's Actually Getting Built

One of the most closely watched projects is developer Mill Creek's proposal to replace the San Rafael Safeway on B Street with a 331-unit apartment complex. It was filed under SB 330, a state law that limits how long cities can delay qualifying housing projects, putting San Rafael on a tight review timeline. Neighbors and advocacy groups are expected to press for details on design, whether a grocery store returns, and how the project serves the surrounding area.

The Gap That Remains

The city isn't starting from a strong position. Local advocacy groups have noted that in earlier reporting periods, San Rafael had met only a fraction of its overall RHNA targets — and an even smaller share of its affordable-housing goals. That's why the current surge matters: raw unit counts only tell half the story if the mix doesn't include enough affordable housing.

Why It Matters

San Rafael's boom is a local test case for a statewide push: can tougher state mandates actually get cities to build the housing — including affordable housing — that California badly needs? Whether the city hits its 3,220-unit target by 2031 will be one of the clearer answers.

This post draws on reporting about San Rafael's housing approvals and the city's official Regional Housing Needs Allocation documentation.

Source - https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/san-rafael-housing-boom-22339216.php