September '25 Deep Dive - North Bay
Ascend RE September 10, 2025
Ascend RE September 10, 2025
Median sale prices are holding steady across most of the North Bay, with Napa showing volatility.
Inventory levels have dropped sharply.
Despite shrinking supply, homes are taking longer to sell.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
In July, North Bay pricing showed relative stability, outside of Napa. Solano and Marin Counties posted modest gains in single-family values (up 0.85% and 3.43%, respectively). Sonoma dipped slightly at 0.06%, while Napa dropped 14.94%. Condos across the region showed price increases, most notably Napa’s dramatic 78.75% rise year-over-year, though such a sharp jump reflects volatility more than sustained appreciation.
The North Bay diverged from other regions with a steep inventory drop. Single-family inventory fell 21.98% month-over-month (12.24% year-over-year), while condos dropped 17.60% month-over-month (8.17% year-over-year). New listings were especially scarce: just 850 single-family homes were listed in July, a 29.28% annual decline—numbers we’d normally expect closer to the holidays.
You’d expect shrinking supply to speed up sales, but homes are taking longer to move. Single-family and condo listings across most of the North Bay spent 20–30% more time on market than last year, an increase of 7–10 days. In extreme cases, Marin and Napa condos lingered 110% and 284% longer, respectively. Napa’s single-family timeline, however, held steady year-over-year.
With supply shrinking, leverage is shifting toward sellers. Marin’s single-family market moved into seller’s territory at 2.3 months of supply, while Solano balanced out at exactly 3 months. Sonoma and Napa still favor buyers at 3.5 and 6.8 months, respectively. The condo market across the North Bay remains buyer-oriented, even as competition inches upward.
The North Bay is a market of contrasts: stability in some counties, volatility in others. Declining inventory has given sellers more leverage in select areas, especially Marin, while buyers still have an edge in Sonoma and Napa. The balance of power will continue shifting as supply remains limited.
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Provided Courtesy of Ascend Real Estate
Provided Courtesy of Ascend Real Estate
Provided courtesy of Ascend Real Estate
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