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Silicon Valley Market Update - August 2026

Ascend RE August 25, 2026

Silicon Valley Market Update - August 2026

A widening gap defines the region this month — San Mateo County pulling ahead on price while Santa Clara flattens and Santa Cruz softens. Meanwhile, condos and single-family homes are moving in almost opposite directions on speed of sale.

Quick Take

  • Prices diverge by county: San Mateo up 10%+ YoY, Santa Clara nearly flat, Santa Cruz down slightly
  • Inventory: 1,849 single-family homes for sale — down 22.18% YoY and down another 5.28% from June
  • Days on market: Single-family still ~2 weeks in San Mateo/Santa Clara; condo timelines have stretched significantly, especially in Santa Cruz

Prices: San Mateo Pulls Ahead

Single-family:

  • San Mateo County: $2,123,000 median — up 10.57% YoY (above $2.1M in 5 of the last 6 months)
  • Santa Clara County: $1,900,000 median — up just 1.06% YoY, third straight monthly decline
  • Santa Cruz County: $1,375,000 median — down 1.47% YoY, though up 1.85% from June

Condos — a scattered picture:

  • San Mateo County: $840,000 — up 8.88% YoY, strongest reading since early 2025
  • Santa Clara County: $711,000 — down 7.06% YoY, but rebounding from June's $661,500 low
  • Santa Cruz County: $619,000 — down 20.13% YoY (thin transaction volume, read with caution)

Inventory: Tightest July on Record

  • Single-family: 1,849 homes for sale, down 22.18% YoY — tightest July reading in the two-year dataset
    • New listings down 4.59% YoY; sold listings essentially flat — demand hasn't dropped, sellers just aren't listing
  • Condos: 835 for sale, down 12.84% YoY
    • New listings down 4.85%, but sold listings surged 23.44% YoY (258 vs. 209) — the most encouraging condo signal in months

Days on Market: Houses Steady, Condos Slow Down

Single-family — still fast, drifting up seasonally:

  • San Mateo: 14 days (flat YoY)
  • Santa Clara: 14 days (up from 13)
  • Santa Cruz: 25 days (up 38.89% from 18)

Condos — a much longer runway:

  • San Mateo: 42 days (up 40% from 30)
  • Santa Clara: 32 days (up 28% from 25)
  • Santa Cruz: 70 days (up ~159% from 27) — the clear outlier

Bottom Line: Houses Favor Sellers, Condos Tilt to Buyers

Using Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) — where ~3 months is balanced, below 3 favors sellers, above 3 favors buyers:

Single-family — firmly seller's market, tightening further:

  • San Mateo: 1.2 months (down 40% YoY) — lowest July figure on record
  • Santa Clara: 1.6 months (down 11.11% YoY)
  • Santa Cruz: 3.4 months (down 29.17% YoY) — now at the edge of balanced

Condos — a different story:

  • San Mateo: 2.9 months (down 29.27% YoY) — now balanced-to-seller territory
  • Santa Clara: 4.1 months (up 5.13% YoY) — the only metric in this report moving toward buyers
  • Santa Cruz: 4.1 months (down sharply from 6.6 last July)

Takeaway: Single-family buyers anywhere in the region should expect competition. Condo buyers — especially in Santa Clara or Santa Cruz — will find more choice and more room to negotiate.

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